Nigeria @ 53: How healthy is the country?

From Olawale Raheed, Kunle Oderemi, Dare Adekanmbi, Jude Ossai and Anthony Ukpong

MOST Nigerians usually shudder each time some institutions unfold some vital statistics about country. Such startling revelations do not come from some world leaders and international organizations alone.

Government agencies such as the Federal Office of Statistics, Bureau of Public Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] give astonishing figures on issues that bother on the Nigerian polity.

A couple of years ago, a British Prime Minister, David Cameron raised the alarm about the frightening rise in youth employment in Nigeria.

He contended that it portend grave danger for the stability of the country. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has also consistently warned on a similar issue and called for concerted efforts to avert the looming danger. Besides, a number of government agencies have added their voice to the call for more proactive measures by the political gladiators because of the dire consequences those socio-and economic disequilibrium pose for the Nigerian political system.

Recently, the former Catholic Archbishop of Nigeria, Cardinal Anthony Olubunmi Okogie, cautioned on how the ongoing horse trading by the political class ahead of the 2015 was heating up the polity. His warning came amidst the ceaseless war by some major figures in the ruling Peoples  Democratic Party [PDP] over the next presidential race.

All these warnings are symptomatic that all is not well with the Nigerian state. They strongly drive home the often widely quoted a 2006 report by a United States of America [USA]-based intelligence agency about the possible disintegration of Nigeria in 2015. Entitled, Mapping the Global Future, the report claimed that the country could split along tribal and sectarian lines if some of the inherent challenges facing the nation was not properly managed and controlled. Though the US Ambassador to Nigeria, Terrence McCulley, has since denied that the US predicted that Nigeria might break up in 2015, the matter has refused to disappear from public discourse, especially in the political circle.

Again, while the issue attracted mixed reactions from Nigerian political leaders, it has since led to an unending debate over if the country could be categorised as a failed state. States with high levels of violence will not automatically be failed states.

Major issues
The inability of successive political leaders to address the national question, unresolved issue of revenue sharing and political power configuration have combined to push  the nation to a state where her citizens doubt her  continued survival into the nearest future. Faith in the nation is regularly badly shaking and even many patriotic agreed that the soul of the nation is threatened. That alleged structural detects has in the last few days aroused calls for a sovereign national conference to determine the structure of the federation. A conference seen as a solution is now another divisive subject with leaders raising questions of how to convoke and what powers such gathering should have.

From across the six zones, the rumbling is clearly felt in the capital, raising questions as to how healthy the nation is. Those holding the view of a nation about to  crash see little hope in the Nigerian Project, while others believing it is not over for the country, pointed at a global crisis of governance with African Nations being the worst affected. To claim that the nation is healthy will attract reproach from many Nigerians.

Those pessimistic about the nation’ present and future listed alleged hopelessness of the leadership, its inability to meet the yearnings and aspirations of the people, uncontrollable level of corrupt enrichment, at all levels of government among others. Nigeria they felt is an artificial creation which has failed to transcend its artificiality.

To claim the nation is unhealthy at 53 years may also attract criticisms from those who believe the crisis of the moment cannot be a good index of measurement. The optimists pointed at expanded educational infrastructure, improving national infrastructure, cohesive  national security system and Military respect for civil rule despite endemic  political crisis, among others.

Between the optimists and pessimists is the truth about Nigeria, its past, present and future. Those disillusioned about the nation are scared of the alternatives of balkanisation, just as those comfortable with the status quo are secretly displeased and angered by the inability of the  establishment  to stabilise and run a truly competent government.

Several missteps were recorded; the most fatal of it all was the failure of the progressives to unite to form government after the 1959 elections.

The nation got it wrong as from independence, governance become ethnic based as nationalism  receded to be replaced with ethnic criteria in decisions and administration. This was the foundation of the coup of 1966.

Major issues
A history of ethnic distrust  is only one of the many serious problems facing the nation  A key issue is a faulty federal structure which, while appearing federal is largely unitary. The details contained in the legislative list leaves no one in doubt that the centre is the controlling body with states as mere appendages. The superiority of the centre ensure that the bulk of national resources are domiciled at the center, thereby ensuring bitter fight among ethnic groups for the control of the centre. As the nation was built on ethnic fault lines, the unitary system enhances ethnic domination, depending on which tribe is controlling the center. The battle for central presidency is thus so tense and hot that the chord of national unity is often jeopardized. This has been a recurring decimal in our national history .The lopsided federal structure then generated associated crisis troubling the nation.

A key fall-out was the crisis of revenue sharing and allocations. The independence constitution had enshrined a derivation formula which worked so well in the First Republic. The abolition of that system created challenges such as struggle for resource control within the oil-producing communities. The subsequent militancy in Niger Delta and extensive environmental damages had since become a permanent facet of our national life. The situation was not helped by a constitutional gridlock. The constitution while containing many contradictions, also made it hard to get its provisions amended. The procedures were so complex while it was also susceptible to influence from forces against amendment. From 1999 to date, the National Assembly has not succeeded in effective fundamental changes to the constitution.

Other core issues include elite greed; unproductive consumptive corruption; policy somersaults in national development plans, over bloated bureaucracy, a weak private sector, zero ideological conviction among parties, and unsustainable pay package for elected officials.

There is also low level of patriotism among leaders and following and inability to elect leaders under a free and fair process.

Leadership question
Most Nigerians tend to blame the instability in the political system to failure of leadership. Their argument is that a principled, focused and resourceful leader was all that the country needs to rise from its current slumber. Some cite Singapore, a tiny island in Asia that has within 48 years become one of the leading industrialised entities under Lee Kuan Yew.  But regrettably, Nigerian politicians seem to fancy the views espoused by a former Prime Minister of Britain, Winston Churchill. He had characterised a politician as one who has the “ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year and the ability afterwards to explain why it never happened.” In other words, the political class has not only been long in making promises but completely short in fulfilling their promises.

Yet, they loot the public treasury with reckless abandon such that the country is believed to have been frisked of a staggering $400 billion since it gained independence in 1960.  In fact, a fomer Minister of Foreogn Affairs, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, put the figure at $500 billion, much of which he said was siphoned and freighted by Nigerian leaders. According to him, the difference of $100 billion was stolen between 1999 and 2013, a trend he said culminated in Nigeria occupying almost number one from the rear in the United Nations Human Capital Development Index (HCDI).

It is however incredible that despite the public outcry on the consequence of the criminal tendency on the future of the country, especially the polity, the need for sanity, accountability and responsibility by the leadership has gained little ground. One of those leaders that consistently cried out then is the renowned chartered accountant, Chief J.K. Randle, who in a essay entitled, Whither Nigerian Industries, in May 1984, warned on the consequence on the polity. He wrote, “The time has come to wipe the slate clean. We must recognize that our economy is fragile and our future is uncertain. The events of the last few years have been traumatic for the nation and painfully so, especially for our industries, many of which either collapsed or hovered in the brink.”

 The prevailing trend of riches and rags had also consistently provoked many other senior citizens like Oxford university-trained Allison Ayida.  He wondered how soon the country was whirling in a vicious circle of instability, when its peers had gone to the next level. “Nigeria was a symbol of integrity and sound monetary management 25 years ago. Today, when I look around the financial sector, it is in a shambles. In spite of the phenomenal growth in the banking sector, the economy is in ruins. It is the fascinating but sad story of the rise and fall of nations, but it happened too soon.” That was the way he painted the predicament of Nigeria in 1987. It is arguable if the country is conscious of what Napoleon Bonaparte said about China: “There lies a sleeping giant. Let her sleep. Because when she wakes she will move the world.” There is mass poverty in the land [Nigeria] today in the midst of abundant human and material resources.  

Many are wont to blame military incursion into political power for the seamless problems facing the country, especially the general instability.

One of such leaders who labour such sentiments is Second Republic President, Shehu Shagari. He said the political class would have corrected itself if it had been given the chance to learn from its mistakes during his tenure. His words, “The first term was somewhat exprimental because as you know, we had been under military regime for a long time and the old system of government as rhey say, was history, so, we were practicing a new system and a new direction. And for anything new, we have to learn from experience, by practice, so, the first term was actively experimental and we were trying to make mistakes (and learn from them). And there was nobody who was experienced in that new administration.”

A similar advocacy almost dominated the tenure of former President Obasanjo who consistently stated that the country was still going thorugh a learning process. But others say Nigerians ought to have put part of the ugly past behind them if the majority of the political leaders that took over the mantle of leadership had been more purposeful, determined and focused since the withdrawal of the military to their barracks.

Corruption
Corruption among public officials is considered as one of the factors that has continuously impeded the national development because of its negative consequence in the polity. Enormous national resources that earmarked for the provision of formal education, health care, infrastructure and public utilities towards creating an enabling environment for job creation, industrialisation and power are brazenly misappropriated by officials. A renowned jurist and former Chairman of the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), Justice Emmanule Ayoola, could not fathom how corruption had become the fad rather than an exception in the country.

He said, “It’s a puzzle about the Nigerian society. When armed robbers were being executed, right at the point of execution, people were still stealing. So, what deterrence has that occasioned? When we come to recent events, you know that we have had instances of high profile personalities convicted. But were they not celebrated back home? Were they not lionised and received as heroes? So, what type of society do we have? In Nigeria of the past, a mere invitation to the police station as a suspect is enough to finish you in the society. Then, if you were convicted of a crime, you simply have to go on self exile until the generations that know of your conviction have become old or dead. But now, convicted people are received with drums and music and they go to church for thanks giving. Sometimes, the pastor even rain curses on the people who send them to jail.”

The nation’s descent uncontrollably down the valley of corruption is also graphically captured by another prominent person, Ambassador Dapo Fafowoora, in an assessment of Nigeria’s economic progrmme in the past. He observed that there is virtually no accountability in the public sector with vast sums of money simply disappearing into private pockets. In his words, “The country is littered with abandoned or uncompleted projects for which, in most cases, full payment has already being made.”  

One of the senior citizens that have led the crusade for national rebirth and renaissance in the former Archbishop, Metropolitan  and Primate Church of Nigeria (Anglican Communion), Most reverend Peter Akinola. The former president of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) cautioned Nigerians against being lethargic on the war on corruption because the culprits were not only trying to destroy the fabrics of the society but also mortgaging opportunities of tomorrow. His warning tallies with the remark of late nationalist, Chief Anthony Enahoro in 2000, a year after the country returned to civil rule. Fresh from self-exile occasioned by the fistic rule late military leader, General Sani Abacha, the septugenarian had declared, “Even the beginnings we establish long ago are today in jeopardy. Independence, democracy and modernisation which were our goals and our battle cry, have not yet been achieved irreversibly.”

Way forward
According to the Head of Department of Political Science at the University of Lagos (UNILAG), Professor Solomon Akinboye, the inability of the Nigerian state to develop sustainable political frameworks for the management of group and class diversities enhanced political instability. 

But he observed that there has been an attempt to correct the anomaly in the Fourth Republic as the 1999 constitution has creatively strengthened both national consciousness and state legitimacy. He said political parties had tended to play divisive tendencies in the past which readily mobilise and deploy socio-economic sentiments to aggravate political conflict. But it was general observation that the absence of internal democracy, suppression of internal dissent, penchant for consensus, prevalence of political godfathers and prevalence of paternalistic relationships had been dominant political values of particularly the parties that merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). On the other hand, he identified politics of supremacy and intolerance as the cause of the factionalisation in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He is miffed by the fact that “the political class rather than provide the dividends of democracy is engrossed with primitive accumulation, and engage the instrument of violence, incite and preach division and aggression.” He concluded that the tendency of incumbency to manipulate the internal party provisions for power-sharing, encourage fragmentation of opposition parties, and exploit public office to influence electoral outcomes constituted impediments in institutionalizing democracy even in the present Fourth Republic. As the ay forward, Akinboye declared, “The recipe for stemming the pervasive tide of discord in Nigeria’s multiparty democracy and facing the challenge of national integration lies in generally in the ability of the leadership to confront frontally the cores like vicious circle of lawlessness, political brigandage, electoral malfeasance, episodic character of corruption, among others.

On his part, a university don, Dr. Okpo Ajah said the only remarkable achievement recorded by Nigeria 53 years after independence is being able to stay united despite the insecurity and other problems it  is presently  going through.   The senior lecturer in the Institute of Public Policy and Administration, University of Calabar said the country was healthy to a large extent as the country has remained a united entity despite the some trying moments. However, he said the country could be considered as partly unhealthy in terms of cultural and economic development. “You know what the CBN governor said that Nigeria’s economy should not be dollarized; let us try to emphasize on Naira. Why should we always catch cold when the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank cough? Let us learn to drive our own economy by ourselves successfully,” he advised. Ajah explained that for the country to achieve its full potentials, it must go back to its cultural pattern of living. He declared, “We should indigenise our economic approach and stop listening to the Washington Consensus”.

Also, a Calabar- based human rights lawyer, Mr Utum Eteng said Nigeria had not done badly in its 53 years of independence, though its progress had been slow with the present leadership striving hard to improve on the provision of infrastructure. He however attributed the country’s woes to the activities of unpatriotic and tribal leaders who champion ethnic agenda rather than the overall interest and progress of the country.

Chief Chiemezie Adibe, a retired top civil servant,  stated that the country was very sick and expressed doubts that the present administration could make Nigeria healthy again. He blamed the country’s dilemma on issue of corruption, which he said had “eaten deep into the nation’s fabric,” adding “yet our leaders are not bold enough to tackle it. How can corrupt leaders fight corruption? Look at the way the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) is fighting the indicted past governors. If it were to be in Nigeria, a former governor of Delta State, James Ibori, would have been a free man.” He said the way forward for the country was for the civil society to sensitise the people on the need to vote bad government or leaders during elections. He said there was also the need “to change our value system.”

On his part, a rights activist, Mr Eke Ugwu, said despite its current challenges, the country would not break. “I can boldly say that Nigeria as a country lacks the will to break. And if we run a referendum or plebiscite, those who don’t want the country to break will win with a wide margin. If you do the assessment, you will find out that from the South-West to the North-West, North-Central and North-East nobody is talking about secession. It is only a few people in the South-South and the South-East that are talking about secession. Even Boko Haram is not talking about secession; rather they are talking about a change of certain things in some states in the North. So, I didn’t see the possibility of Nigeria breaking up.” What I saw is a bitter politics surrounding the presidency which I strongly believe that we shall overcome with prayers. President Goodluck Jonathan, will have to contend with many forces on the cause of 2015 general election.

Number one, Jonathan will contend with those who are accusing him of poor performance. Two, he will contend with those who are of the view that he has no reason to stay beyond 2015 whether he performed well or not. The way forward is for Nigerians to turn to God and change our present orientation for good. Our leadership should be God-fearing and selfless in their service.”

But a cleric, Anthony Nwoko, said there was nothing for the country to celebrte at 53 because of bad leadership and asked Nigerians to show pertinence so that the country could have the favour of God.

Many other analysts have also proposed several ways out of the crisis. Some says the ability of a people to freely  elect their leaders is a foundation of democracy. Nigeria needs to find an acceptable way of making the votes of the citizens count. The existing scenario is so bad that election results are often disputed as unrepresentative of the will of the people.

The need to ensure devolution of functions and resources to the state level can no longer be denied by political leaders. A revenue sharing based on derivation will lower ethnic rivalry and ensure healthy competition among the various zones and ethnic clubs in the nation. The battle for the presidency will no longer constitute a threat to national security.

More reactions
A former member of  Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Chief Abu King Shuluwa, and a former Minister of Communication and leader of Middle Belt Forum, Chief Isaac Shaahu stated that there was nothing to celebrate as the nation is ‘precariously sick’. The duo who spoke to Nigerian Tribune separately, lamented that the present generation of leaders had refused to build on the legacy of Nigeria as nationalists live Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Nnamdi Azikwe, Tafawa Balewa, Anthony Enahoro and others who contributed to the attainment of the nation’s independence in 1960.

The elder statesman and chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Benue State, speaking expressed sadness about the nation’s socio economic and political situation. He said the country at present was in dare need of divine intervention for the nation to get out of its ‘sick bed’. according to Shuluwa, “there is nothing to celebrate about the independence because the nation is precariously sick in all ramifications; the situation we have found ourselves now is worse than when late Major Chukwuma Nzeogwu, interrupted the political structure of the nation. The living are alive by the grace of God, because the security situation of the country is in a shambles, no one is sure of what could happen the next minute. You cannot walk freely without the fear of kidnappers, Boko Haram, robbers. You communal clashes everywhere. What of corruption in all places? The leaders  are diverting resources meant for the development of the nation to their private purses; some of our political leaders are richer than their states. Awolowo, Tafawa Balewa and Azikwe served this nation with their whole heart, but a  visit to our major cities across the country shows magnificent edifices owned by political class.”

Shuluwa lamented about the poor implementation of budgets, saying: “Imagine at the beginning of the last quarter of the year, we are still talking about how to implement 2013 budget instead of making preparation towards 2014 budget. What of the exchange rate? Naira is turning whereas, in the 70’s, Naira appreciated more than the US dollars. Where are we heading,” he queried.

On the way forward, he said when the government strengthened all institutions and instilled discipline, every other things would fall in place.

In his words, “what we need is to strengthen all our institutions; Judiciary, anti graft commissions, INEC, academic institutions, security agencies and instill discipline in our budgetary implementation, by the time we do these, other things will fall in places. To achieve this, Shuluwa added a leader that was focused and committed to the Nigerian project is needed, hence, ‘divine intervention.”

A former Minister of Communication and leader of Middle Belt Forum, Chief Isaac Shaahu, said there was nothing to cheer about as he described the situation in the country as a mess. He criticised the present young generation for plunging the country into the abyss of underdevelopment and urged them to relinquish power to the old brigade who he said were  more visionary and committed to the country.

“Everything is a mess. The young people who took over messed up everything and the only way the country can get out of the woods is to give power back to the old generation who have vision and commitment,” he stated.

Written in his book, Thought on Nigerian Constitution, Chief Awolowo emphasised the importance of political stability to any action.  He stated, “of all the factors which conduce to the economic prosperity and again in material sense, to the greatness of a nation and its people, the most important is political stability.  Without it national resources, manpower and capitla quality, whatever and capital quantity, whatever and quality, plus technical knowledge will avail very little.”